Visa Bulletin Scenario Simulator | Visafig Official Figures
A single “when will I be Current?” number hides the real risk: the cutoff can lurch forward one month and snap backward the next. This visa bulletin scenario simulator takes one priority date and shows three outcomes at once — optimistic, baseline, and conservative — so you can see how much a retrogression could actually cost you. Most calculators hand you a point estimate and call it a day; the spread is what lets you plan instead of hope.
Photo: 2H Media via UnsplashFrequently Asked Questions
What do the three scenarios mean?
The optimistic case assumes cutoffs move 1.5× faster than the recent average, the baseline tracks the recent average pace, and the conservative case assumes 0.6× pace plus one illustrative -12 month retrogression event. Together they bracket a realistic range instead of a single false-precise date.
Why is optimistic faster than conservative?
Bulletin movement is uneven month to month. A strong run of advances (optimistic) brings your date Current sooner; a slow stretch with a setback (conservative) delays it. Planning against the conservative end keeps you from over-committing to a best-case timeline.
What is retrogression and why does it appear in the conservative case?
Retrogression is when the cutoff moves backward because demand exhausts the fiscal-year supply. It is real and routine for India and China employment lines. The conservative scenario includes one -12 month setback as an illustrative example of how much a single rollback can cost you.
Where does the movement data come from?
From the U.S. Department of State Visa Bulletin final-action cutoffs, which Visafig stores and verifies month by month for All Chargeability Areas, China, and India. The average pace is computed from that verified history.
Why do the estimates vary so much between scenarios?
Because a cutoff is one date driven by demand, not a clock. Small changes in monthly advance speed compound over many months, and a single retrogression can add a year. The spread is the point — it shows your true exposure.
How should I use these results?
Treat the baseline as your planning center and the conservative case as your readiness test. If even the conservative date lets you hit a life goal, you are safe; if only the optimistic case works, you are exposed to retrogression risk.
Do country differences matter here?
Yes. India and China employment categories carry the longest backlogs and the highest retrogression risk, so their spread between scenarios is widest. All Chargeability Areas and Mexico/Philippines often sit closer to Current.
When should I actually file the final step?
You file adjustment of status (or consular processing) only once your priority date is at or before the published cutoff for your category and country. No scenario replaces the live monthly bulletin on your filing date.
Does PERM or I-140 timing affect this simulator?
Not directly — this tool models the wait for the priority date to become Current. Your PERM and I-140 lead times run separately and are modeled in the lifecycle simulator and reverse estimator.
What is the best planning tip?
Keep both EB-2 and EB-3 eligibility alive when possible. When one line retrogresses, the other can open a faster path, and a scenario spread like this tells you which line to favor in a given month.