H-1B Multi-Year Lottery Simulator | Visafig Official Figures
One lottery feels like luck; five in a row is math. This H-1B lottery simulator takes your annual selection odds and compounds them across 3–5 attempts, so you see the real probability you’re never picked — and the moment it makes sense to pivot to an employment green card. Most H-1B pages quote a single year’s rate and stop; the cumulative view is what tells you whether to hedge with EB-3 or NIW.
Photo: Cytonn Photography via UnsplashDefault 28% reflects recent USCIS regular-cap selection rates (~25–30%). The advanced-degree (master’s) cap has historically been selected at a higher rate. Adjust to match your situation.
Cumulative selection probability
| Year | Selected (≥1) | Never selected |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28.0% | 72.0% |
| 2 | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| 3 | 62.7% | 37.3% |
Probability uses P(selected by year N) = 1 − (1 − p)^N. Figures are estimates based on recent published USCIS selection rates, not a guarantee of any future lottery.
Frequently Asked Questions
How are the odds computed?
The tool treats each year's lottery as an independent draw with your chosen selection probability p. The chance of being picked at least once in N years is 1 − (1 − p)^N, and the chance of never being picked is (1 − p)^N. The bars show cumulative selection probability growing year by year.
What selection rates are realistic?
Recent USCIS regular-cap selection rates have run about 25–30% in published post-lottery figures. The advanced-degree (U.S. master's) cap has historically been selected at a higher rate. The simulator defaults to 28% but you can adjust the slider to your case.
Does filing multiple registrations help?
USCIS now caps each beneficiary at one registration per company per year, so duplicate self-registrations by the same employer are rejected. Your real levers are a qualifying advanced degree and having more than one legitimate employer sponsor.
What is the advanced-degree cap?
A separate pool of about 20,000 spots is reserved for U.S. master's-or-higher graduates, drawn before the regular cap. Beneficiaries in this pool face a different (generally higher) selection rate than the regular cap.
What if I am never selected?
If the never-selected probability stays high after three years, the tool flags a backup plan. You can pursue an employment-based green card in parallel — EB-3 for a bachelor's or skilled role, or EB-2 NIW on national-interest grounds — so a missed lottery does not stop the clock.
How does EB-3 work as an alternative?
EB-3 needs a bachelor's degree or skilled position plus PERM and an I-140, and it is not subject to the H-1B lottery. If your priority date is Current for your country, it can be faster than waiting on repeated lottery draws.
How does NIW work as an alternative?
An EB-2 National Interest Waiver lets you self-petition without a PERM labor certification and without employer sponsorship. If you qualify on national-interest grounds, it removes both the lottery and the PERM wait from the front of your path.
What is the CAP-gap extension?
If your H-1B is selected but starts October 1, a CAP-gap provision can extend expiring F-1 status and OPT through September 30 so you stay work-authorized. It does not change your long-run selection odds.
Can Day-1 CPT replace the H-1B?
Day-1 CPT lets some F-1 students work from the start of a new program, but it carries scrutiny and is not a green-card path. It is a work-authorization bridge, not a substitute for an H-1B or employment-based petition.
What is the best planning tip?
Run the simulator at your real selection rate and watch the year-3 'never selected' number. If it stays above 50%, start an EB-2 or EB-3 petition in parallel rather than betting five lotteries in a row.