Retrogression Risk Simulator | Visafig Official Figures
A green card timeline built on the baseline cutoff is quietly fragile: one retrogressed bulletin can erase a year of progress. This retrogression risk simulator takes your real baseline wait and layers on the historical-style setbacks that hit India EB-2 and China EB-3, showing exactly how many months a rollback could add. Most estimators show the optimistic path; this one prices in the bad month you are actually planning against.
Photo: Tingey Injury Law Firm via UnsplashUsed to anchor your baseline wait. Leave as-is or enter your own date.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is visa bulletin retrogression?
Retrogression is when the State Department moves a cutoff date backward instead of forward. It happens when demand exhausts the available visa numbers for a category or country before the fiscal year ends, pushing many applicants' priority dates back out of reach.
Why does retrogression happen?
Annual numerical limits cap each country at 7% of roughly 140,000 employment-based visas. India and China have far more demand than that share allows, so once a year's numbers are used, the cutoffs retrogress until the next fiscal year replenishes them.
Are there real historical examples?
Yes. India EB-2 and China EB-3 have both seen large rollbacks in past bulletins, with cutoffs jumping back by months or more in a single month. The simulator's presets are modeled on those documented patterns, though the exact future magnitude is illustrative.
Why is India EB-2 highlighted?
India EB-2 has one of the deepest backlogs and a long history of retrogressing. In August 2026 it is listed as Unavailable, the clearest possible sign of exhausted demand. The preset models one -24 month setback every 36 months of waiting.
Why is China EB-3 highlighted?
China EB-3 has also retrogressed sharply in past years. The preset models one -18 month setback every 30 months — a lighter but still meaningful pattern relative to India EB-2.
How often does retrogression occur?
It is routine near the end of each fiscal year (October–September) for oversubscribed lines, then often resets in October. The simulator spreads setbacks across the whole wait to show their cumulative drag, not just an end-of-year blip.
Can retrogression be predicted?
Not precisely. The State Department signals risk in the bulletin's 'Dates for Filing' and 'Final Action' notes, but exact rollback size is set month to month. Treat the simulator's setbacks as an illustrative band, not a forecast.
How do I protect my priority date?
Once your I-485 has been pending 180 days and your I-140 is approved, you can generally keep your priority date and port to a similar job. Filing early when your date is Current locks in more of your place in line before a rollback.
Does retrogression affect a pending I-485?
If your priority date retrogresses after your I-485 is already approved, you are safe. If it retrogresses while I-485 is pending and your date falls out of range, approval can be deferred until the date is Current again — which is why the added wait matters.
What is the best planning tip?
Plan against the with-retrogression total, not the baseline. If even the conservative total still meets your goal, a rollback won't derail you; if only the baseline works, keep both EB-2 and EB-3 eligibility alive as insurance.